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Esperance Tunis vs Al Ahli Benghazi — CAF Champions League 2019

Esperance Tunis
Esperance Tunis
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Al Ahli Benghazi
Al Ahli Benghazi
1/6/2021CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st RoundStade Olympique de Radès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Esperance Tunis56%
×Draw26%
Al Ahli Benghazi18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esperance Tunis
1.50
Al Ahli Benghazi
0.72

Esperance Tunis creates 108% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 4 away

creates per match

Esperance Tunis
1.50
Al Ahli Benghazi
1.00

allows per match

Esperance Tunis
0.45
Al Ahli Benghazi
1.50

finishing

Esperance Tunis+0.00on par
Al Ahli Benghazi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esperance Tunis ↓

Al Ahli Benghazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Esperance Tunis or draw
82%
Esperance Tunis or Al Ahli Benghazi
74%
Draw or Al Ahli Benghazi
44%

Winning margin

Esperance Tunis wins by 2+
29%
Al Ahli Benghazi wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Esperance Tunis 1+ goals
78%
Esperance Tunis 2+ goals
44%
Esperance Tunis 3+ goals
19%
Al Ahli Benghazi 1+ goals
51%
Al Ahli Benghazi 2+ goals
16%
Al Ahli Benghazi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)
76%
Al Ahli Benghazi (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esperance Tunis at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.45 · 40 matches

Al Ahli Benghazi away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esperance Tunis attack 1.50 + Al Ahli Benghazi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Al Ahli Benghazi attack 1.00 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Esperance Tunis scores more
56%
level
26%
Al Ahli Benghazi scores more
18%

Esperance Tunis at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Esperance Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Esperance Tunis 3–2 Al Ahli Benghazi

Esperance Tunis beat Al Ahli Benghazi 3-2 in CAF Champions League on January 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Radès in Radès.