Esperança d'Andorra 1–1 Atlètic Amèrica

Esperança d'Andorra

FT

1 – 1

Atlètic Amèrica

5/6/2023

League #313 · Promotion Round - 5Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Esperança d'Andorra52%

×Draw24%

Atlètic Amèrica24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esperança d'AndorraExpected goals in this matchAtlètic Amèrica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.04

Esperança d'Andorra

1.67

Atlètic Amèrica

1.04

Esperança d'Andorra creates 61% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

0.75

1.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Esperança d'Andorra

2.33

Atlètic Amèrica

0.75

allows per match

Esperança d'Andorra

1.33

Atlètic Amèrica

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esperança d'Andorra+0.00on par

Atlètic Amèrica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esperança d'Andorra ↓

Atlètic Amèrica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Esperança d'Andorra or draw

76%

Esperança d'Andorra or Atlètic Amèrica

76%

Draw or Atlètic Amèrica

48%

Winning margin

Esperança d'Andorra wins by 2+

28%

Atlètic Amèrica wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Esperança d'Andorra 1+ goals

81%

Esperança d'Andorra 2+ goals

50%

Esperança d'Andorra 3+ goals

23%

Atlètic Amèrica 1+ goals

65%

Atlètic Amèrica 2+ goals

28%

Atlètic Amèrica 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Esperança d'Andorra (draw refunded)

69%

Atlètic Amèrica (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esperança d'Andorra at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Atlètic Amèrica away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esperança d'Andorra attack 2.33 + Atlètic Amèrica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Atlètic Amèrica attack 0.75 + Esperança d'Andorra defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Esperança d'Andorra scores more

52%

level

24%

Atlètic Amèrica scores more

24%

Esperança d'Andorra at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Esperança d'Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff