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Espanyol W vs Rayo Vallecano W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Espanyol W
Espanyol W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rayo Vallecano W
Rayo Vallecano W
4/17/2021Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 26Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Espanyol W45%
×Draw25%
Rayo Vallecano W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Espanyol W
1.58
Rayo Vallecano W
1.24

Espanyol W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 58 away

creates per match

Espanyol W
1.07
Rayo Vallecano W
0.81

allows per match

Espanyol W
1.67
Rayo Vallecano W
2.10

finishing

Espanyol W+0.00on par
Rayo Vallecano W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espanyol W ↓

Rayo Vallecano W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Espanyol W or draw
70%
Espanyol W or Rayo Vallecano W
75%
Draw or Rayo Vallecano W
55%

Winning margin

Espanyol W wins by 2+
23%
Rayo Vallecano W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Espanyol W 1+ goals
79%
Espanyol W 2+ goals
47%
Espanyol W 3+ goals
21%
Rayo Vallecano W 1+ goals
71%
Rayo Vallecano W 2+ goals
35%
Rayo Vallecano W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Espanyol W (draw refunded)
60%
Rayo Vallecano W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espanyol W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

Rayo Vallecano W away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.10 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espanyol W attack 1.07 + Rayo Vallecano W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.58

Rayo Vallecano W attack 0.81 + Espanyol W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Espanyol W scores more
45%
level
25%
Rayo Vallecano W scores more
30%

Espanyol W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Espanyol W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Espanyol W vs Rayo Vallecano W

Espanyol W and Rayo Vallecano W drew 2-2 in Primera División Femenina on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque in San Adrián de Besós.