Espanyol W 2–4 Fundacion Albacete W: Result & Stats

Espanyol W

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Fundacion Albacete W

Paula 88', 48'

Carmen 84'

Sara Navarro 67' (pen)

Alba Redondo 42'

SofíaHernández 10'

12/6/2018

Primera División Femenina · Round 12Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque (Sant Adrià de Besòs (San Adrián de Besós))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Espanyol W45%

×Draw23%

Fundacion Albacete W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Espanyol WExpected goals in this matchFundacion Albacete W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.46

Espanyol W

1.77

Fundacion Albacete W

1.46

Espanyol W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 33 away

1.07

creates per match

1.24

1.67

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Espanyol W

1.07

Fundacion Albacete W

1.24

allows per match

Espanyol W

1.67

Fundacion Albacete W

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Espanyol W+0.00on par

Fundacion Albacete W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espanyol W ↓

Fundacion Albacete W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Espanyol W or draw

68%

Espanyol W or Fundacion Albacete W

77%

Draw or Fundacion Albacete W

55%

Winning margin

Espanyol W wins by 2+

24%

Fundacion Albacete W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Espanyol W 1+ goals

83%

Espanyol W 2+ goals

53%

Espanyol W 3+ goals

26%

Fundacion Albacete W 1+ goals

77%

Fundacion Albacete W 2+ goals

43%

Fundacion Albacete W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Espanyol W (draw refunded)

58%

Fundacion Albacete W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espanyol W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

Fundacion Albacete W away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.48 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espanyol W attack 1.07 + Fundacion Albacete W defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.77

Fundacion Albacete W attack 1.24 + Espanyol W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Espanyol W scores more

45%

level

23%

Fundacion Albacete W scores more

32%

Espanyol W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Espanyol W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

SofíaHernández

39'

Kuki← Kuki

42'

Alba Redondo

46'

Esther← Esther

46'

Elena Julve← Elena Julve

48'

Paula

67'

Sara NavarroPenalty

70'

Padi Padilla← Padi Padilla

76'

Sara Navarro← Sara Navarro

82'

Maria Llompart← Maria Llompart

82'

Elba← Elba

83'

Alba Redondo← Alba Redondo

84'

Carmen

88'

Paula

Espanyol

Fundacion

1

Elena

15

Costa

3

▼

Padilla

10

⚽

▼

20

6

17

2

11

⚽

▼

Navarro

24

⚽

SofíaHern

21

▼

13

16

3

26

22

▼

Elba

2

▼

Esther

19

Alvarado

10

Brenda

14

▼

Llompart

20

⚽2

Paula

11

▼

Julve

👔

Manager: Joan Bacardit

46'▲—←▼Esther

46'▲—←▼Elena Julve

82'▲—←▼Maria Llompart

82'▲—←▼Elba

Espanyol W substitutes

5Inés9Estal7Baudet15Shinada8Letti18Fernández35Escudero

👔

Manager: Carlos del Valle

39'▲—←▼Kuki

70'▲—←▼Padi Padilla

76'▲—←▼Sara Navarro

83'▲—←▼Alba Redondo

Fundacion Albacete W substitutes

18Pomares16Cintia8Carmen9Bulatovic4Mejia7Martínez13Córdoba

Match Recap: Espanyol W vs Fundacion Albacete W

Fundacion Albacete W beat Espanyol W 4-2 in Primera División Femenina on December 6, 2018.

Goals: SofíaHernández (10'), Alba Redondo (42'), Paula (48', 88'), Sara Navarro (67' pen), Carmen (84').

The match was played at Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque (Sant Adrià de Besòs (San Adrián de Besós)).

Espanyol W vs Fundacion Albacete W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Espanyol W vs Fundacion Albacete W