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Espanyol vs Villarreal II — Segunda División 2018

Espanyol
Espanyol
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
1/20/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 23Stage Front Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Espanyol61%
×Draw23%
Villarreal II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Espanyol
1.75
Villarreal II
0.75

Espanyol creates 133% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 42 away

creates per match

Espanyol
1.86
Villarreal II
0.81

allows per match

Espanyol
0.68
Villarreal II
1.64

finishing

Espanyol+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espanyol ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Espanyol or draw
84%
Espanyol or Villarreal II
77%
Draw or Villarreal II
39%

Winning margin

Espanyol wins by 2+
35%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Espanyol 1+ goals
83%
Espanyol 2+ goals
52%
Espanyol 3+ goals
25%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
53%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
17%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Espanyol (draw refunded)
80%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espanyol at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.68 · 44 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espanyol attack 1.86 + Villarreal II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.75

Villarreal II attack 0.81 + Espanyol defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Espanyol scores more
61%
level
23%
Villarreal II scores more
16%

Espanyol at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Espanyol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Espanyol vs Villarreal II

Espanyol beat Villarreal II 2-1 in Segunda División on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stage Front Stadium in Cornella de Llobregat.