Espanyol 3–0 Racing Ferrol: Result & Stats

Espanyol

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Racing Ferrol

10/2/2023

Segunda División · Round 8Stage Front Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Espanyol62%

×Draw23%

Racing Ferrol14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EspanyolExpected goals in this matchRacing Ferrol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.68

Espanyol

1.71

Racing Ferrol

0.68

Espanyol creates 151% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 42 away

1.86

creates per match

0.67

0.68

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Espanyol

1.86

Racing Ferrol

0.67

allows per match

Espanyol

0.68

Racing Ferrol

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Espanyol+0.00on par

Racing Ferrol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espanyol ↓

Racing Ferrol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Espanyol or draw

86%

Espanyol or Racing Ferrol

77%

Draw or Racing Ferrol

38%

Winning margin

Espanyol wins by 2+

35%

Racing Ferrol wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Espanyol 1+ goals

82%

Espanyol 2+ goals

51%

Espanyol 3+ goals

24%

Racing Ferrol 1+ goals

49%

Racing Ferrol 2+ goals

15%

Racing Ferrol 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Espanyol (draw refunded)

81%

Racing Ferrol (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espanyol at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.68 · 44 matches

Racing Ferrol away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.55 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espanyol attack 1.86 + Racing Ferrol defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.71

Racing Ferrol attack 0.67 + Espanyol defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Espanyol scores more

62%

level

23%

Racing Ferrol scores more

14%

Espanyol at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Espanyol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff