Espanyol 1–0 Mallorca: Result & Stats | La Liga

Espanyol

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mallorca

Raúl de Tomás 42'

3/20/2022

La Liga · Round 29RCDE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Espanyol48%

×Draw25%

Mallorca28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EspanyolExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.17

Espanyol

1.61

Mallorca

1.17

Espanyol creates 38% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 46 away

1.49

creates per match

0.93

1.40

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Espanyol

1.49

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Espanyol

1.40

Mallorca

1.74

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Espanyol-0.38scores less

Mallorca-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espanyol ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Espanyol or draw

72%

Espanyol or Mallorca

75%

Draw or Mallorca

52%

Winning margin

Espanyol wins by 2+

25%

Mallorca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Espanyol 1+ goals

80%

Espanyol 2+ goals

48%

Espanyol 3+ goals

22%

Mallorca 1+ goals

69%

Mallorca 2+ goals

33%

Mallorca 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Espanyol (draw refunded)

63%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espanyol at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.40 · 27 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espanyol attack 1.49 + Mallorca defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.61

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Espanyol defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Espanyol scores more

48%

level

25%

Mallorca scores more

28%

Espanyol at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Espanyol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Darder

Espanyol · M

7.7

Match Events

8'

Jaume CostaPenalty cancelled

10'

Jaume Costa

23'

Keidi Bare

37'

Vedat Muriqi

42'

Raúl de Tomás↳ Darder

46'

Oier← Diego López

46'

Abdón Prats← Ángel

54'

Aleix Vidal← T. Vilhena

55'

Manu Morlanes← K. Bare

59'

T. Kubo← Lee Kang-In

59'

Salva Sevilla← Antonio Sánchez

62'

Antonio Raillo

71'

Nico Melamed← Adri Embarba

81'

Aleix Vidal

81'

Manuel Morlanes

82'

Javier Llabrés← I. Baba

86'

Loren Morón← Raúl de Tomás

90'

Fer Niño← G. González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EspanyolMallorca

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots10

6Corners6

14Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots10

3On Target4

5Off Target3

4Blocked3

6Inside Box3

6Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

358Total Passes428

274Accurate Passes333

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3