Espanyol 1–1 FC Andorra: Result & Stats

Espanyol

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Andorra

4/21/2024

Segunda División · Round 36Stage Front Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Espanyol55%

×Draw25%

FC Andorra20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EspanyolExpected goals in this matchFC Andorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.85

Espanyol

1.60

FC Andorra

0.85

Espanyol creates 88% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 63 away

1.86

creates per match

1.02

0.68

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Espanyol

1.86

FC Andorra

1.02

allows per match

Espanyol

0.68

FC Andorra

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Espanyol+0.00on par

FC Andorra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espanyol ↓

FC Andorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Espanyol or draw

80%

Espanyol or FC Andorra

75%

Draw or FC Andorra

45%

Winning margin

Espanyol wins by 2+

29%

FC Andorra wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Espanyol 1+ goals

80%

Espanyol 2+ goals

47%

Espanyol 3+ goals

22%

FC Andorra 1+ goals

57%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

21%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Espanyol (draw refunded)

73%

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espanyol at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.68 · 44 matches

FC Andorra away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.35 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espanyol attack 1.86 + FC Andorra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.60

FC Andorra attack 1.02 + Espanyol defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Espanyol scores more

55%

level

25%

FC Andorra scores more

20%

Espanyol at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Espanyol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff