Espanyol 3–3 Burgos: Result & Stats

Espanyol

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Burgos

12/19/2023

Segunda División · Round 21Stage Front Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Espanyol57%

×Draw25%

Burgos18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EspanyolExpected goals in this matchBurgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.74

Espanyol

1.56

Burgos

0.74

Espanyol creates 111% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 105 away

1.86

creates per match

0.79

0.68

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Espanyol

1.86

Burgos

0.79

allows per match

Espanyol

0.68

Burgos

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Espanyol+0.00on par

Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espanyol ↓

Burgos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Espanyol or draw

82%

Espanyol or Burgos

75%

Draw or Burgos

43%

Winning margin

Espanyol wins by 2+

30%

Burgos wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Espanyol 1+ goals

79%

Espanyol 2+ goals

46%

Espanyol 3+ goals

21%

Burgos 1+ goals

52%

Burgos 2+ goals

17%

Burgos 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Espanyol (draw refunded)

76%

Burgos (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espanyol at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.68 · 44 matches

Burgos away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.25 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espanyol attack 1.86 + Burgos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Burgos attack 0.79 + Espanyol defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Espanyol scores more

57%

level

25%

Burgos scores more

18%

Espanyol at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Espanyol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff