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EsPa vs ToTe — Suomen Cup 2018

EsPa
EsPa
FT
2 – 1
ToTe
ToTe
2/17/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundMatinkylän urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

EsPa19%
×Draw18%
ToTe63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EsPa
1.42
ToTe
2.67

ToTe creates 88% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

EsPa
1.83
ToTe
4.00

allows per match

EsPa
1.33
ToTe
1.00

finishing

EsPa+0.00on par
ToTe+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EsPa ↓

ToTe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

EsPa or draw
37%
EsPa or ToTe
82%
Draw or ToTe
81%

Winning margin

EsPa wins by 2+
8%
ToTe wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

EsPa 1+ goals
76%
EsPa 2+ goals
41%
EsPa 3+ goals
17%
ToTe 1+ goals
93%
ToTe 2+ goals
74%
ToTe 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

EsPa (draw refunded)
23%
ToTe (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EsPa at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

ToTe away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EsPa attack 1.83 + ToTe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

ToTe attack 4.00 + EsPa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

EsPa scores more
19%
level
18%
ToTe scores more
63%

ToTe at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "ToTe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: EsPa 2–1 ToTe

EsPa beat ToTe 2-1 in Suomen Cup on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Matinkylän urheilupuisto in Esbo.