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EsPa vs SaPa — Suomen Cup 2018

EsPa
EsPa
FT
4 – 1
SaPa
SaPa
4/3/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundMatinkylän urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

EsPa42%
×Draw20%
SaPa38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EsPa
2.29
SaPa
2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

EsPa
1.83
SaPa
3.00

allows per match

EsPa
1.33
SaPa
2.75

finishing

EsPa+0.00on par
SaPa+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EsPa ↓

SaPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

EsPa or draw
62%
EsPa or SaPa
80%
Draw or SaPa
58%

Winning margin

EsPa wins by 2+
24%
SaPa wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

EsPa 1+ goals
90%
EsPa 2+ goals
66%
EsPa 3+ goals
40%
SaPa 1+ goals
89%
SaPa 2+ goals
64%
SaPa 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

EsPa (draw refunded)
53%
SaPa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EsPa at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

SaPa away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EsPa attack 1.83 + SaPa defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.29

SaPa attack 3.00 + EsPa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

EsPa scores more
42%
level
20%
SaPa scores more
38%

EsPa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "EsPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: EsPa 4–1 SaPa

EsPa beat SaPa 4-1 in Suomen Cup on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Matinkylän urheilupuisto in Esbo.