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EsPa vs PPJ — Suomen Cup 2018

EsPa
EsPa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
PPJ
PPJ
5/6/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundMatinkylän urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

EsPa25%
×Draw20%
PPJ55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EsPa
1.50
PPJ
2.30

PPJ creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

EsPa
1.83
PPJ
3.27

allows per match

EsPa
1.33
PPJ
1.18

finishing

EsPa+0.00on par
PPJ+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EsPa ↓

PPJ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

EsPa or draw
45%
EsPa or PPJ
80%
Draw or PPJ
75%

Winning margin

EsPa wins by 2+
11%
PPJ wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

EsPa 1+ goals
78%
EsPa 2+ goals
44%
EsPa 3+ goals
19%
PPJ 1+ goals
90%
PPJ 2+ goals
67%
PPJ 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

EsPa (draw refunded)
31%
PPJ (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EsPa at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

PPJ away — creates 3.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EsPa attack 1.83 + PPJ defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.50

PPJ attack 3.27 + EsPa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

EsPa scores more
25%
level
20%
PPJ scores more
55%

PPJ at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "PPJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EsPa vs PPJ

EsPa beat PPJ 1-0 in Suomen Cup on May 6, 2025.

The match was played at Matinkylän urheilupuisto in Esbo.