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EsPa / Renat vs EsPa — Suomen Cup 2018

EsPa / Renat
EsPa / Renat
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 1
EsPa
EsPa
4/9/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundMatinkylä 2 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

EsPa / Renat3%
×Draw6%
EsPa91%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EsPa / Renat
1.02
EsPa
5.06

EsPa creates 396% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

EsPa / Renat
0.67
EsPa
6.13

allows per match

EsPa / Renat
4.00
EsPa
1.38

finishing

EsPa / Renat+0.00on par
EsPa+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EsPa / Renat ↓

EsPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–24%
0–37%
0–48%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 57% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

EsPa / Renat or draw
9%
EsPa / Renat or EsPa
94%
Draw or EsPa
97%

Winning margin

EsPa / Renat wins by 2+
1%
EsPa wins by 2+
81%

Team goals

EsPa / Renat 1+ goals
64%
EsPa / Renat 2+ goals
27%
EsPa / Renat 3+ goals
8%
EsPa 1+ goals
99%
EsPa 2+ goals
95%
EsPa 3+ goals
84%

Draw no bet

EsPa / Renat (draw refunded)
3%
EsPa (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EsPa / Renat at home — creates 0.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

EsPa away — creates 6.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EsPa / Renat attack 0.67 + EsPa defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.02

EsPa attack 6.13 + EsPa / Renat defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 5.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

EsPa / Renat scores more
3%
level
6%
EsPa scores more
91%

EsPa at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "EsPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EsPa / Renat vs EsPa

EsPa beat EsPa / Renat 6-0 in Suomen Cup on April 9, 2025.

The match was played at Matinkylä 2 Tekonurmi in Espoo.