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ESMTK vs Pénzügyőr — NB III - Southeast 2023

ESMTK
ESMTK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pénzügyőr
Pénzügyőr
8/2/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 2ESMTK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

ESMTK63%
×Draw21%
Pénzügyőr16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ESMTK
2.00
Pénzügyőr
0.90

ESMTK creates 122% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

ESMTK
2.22
Pénzügyőr
1.20

allows per match

ESMTK
0.60
Pénzügyőr
1.77

finishing

ESMTK+0.00on par
Pénzügyőr+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ESMTK ↓

Pénzügyőr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

ESMTK or draw
84%
ESMTK or Pénzügyőr
79%
Draw or Pénzügyőr
37%

Winning margin

ESMTK wins by 2+
38%
Pénzügyőr wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

ESMTK 1+ goals
86%
ESMTK 2+ goals
59%
ESMTK 3+ goals
32%
Pénzügyőr 1+ goals
59%
Pénzügyőr 2+ goals
23%
Pénzügyőr 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

ESMTK (draw refunded)
79%
Pénzügyőr (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ESMTK at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.60 · 45 matches

Pénzügyőr away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ESMTK attack 2.22 + Pénzügyőr defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.00

Pénzügyőr attack 1.20 + ESMTK defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

ESMTK scores more
63%
level
21%
Pénzügyőr scores more
16%

ESMTK at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "ESMTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ESMTK vs Pénzügyőr

ESMTK beat Pénzügyőr 2-0 in NB III - Southeast on August 2, 2023.

The match was played at ESMTK Stadion in Budapest.