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ESMTK vs Hódmezővásárhely — NB III - Southeast 2023

ESMTK
ESMTK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hódmezővásárhely
Hódmezővásárhely
5/26/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 30ESMTK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

ESMTK56%
×Draw23%
Hódmezővásárhely21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ESMTK
1.79
Hódmezővásárhely
0.98

ESMTK creates 83% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

ESMTK
2.22
Hódmezővásárhely
1.36

allows per match

ESMTK
0.60
Hódmezővásárhely
1.36

finishing

ESMTK+0.00on par
Hódmezővásárhely+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ESMTK ↓

Hódmezővásárhely →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

ESMTK or draw
79%
ESMTK or Hódmezővásárhely
77%
Draw or Hódmezővásárhely
44%

Winning margin

ESMTK wins by 2+
32%
Hódmezővásárhely wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

ESMTK 1+ goals
83%
ESMTK 2+ goals
53%
ESMTK 3+ goals
26%
Hódmezővásárhely 1+ goals
62%
Hódmezővásárhely 2+ goals
26%
Hódmezővásárhely 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

ESMTK (draw refunded)
73%
Hódmezővásárhely (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ESMTK at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.60 · 45 matches

Hódmezővásárhely away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ESMTK attack 2.22 + Hódmezővásárhely defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.79

Hódmezővásárhely attack 1.36 + ESMTK defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

ESMTK scores more
56%
level
23%
Hódmezővásárhely scores more
21%

ESMTK at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "ESMTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: ESMTK 2–1 Hódmezővásárhely

ESMTK beat Hódmezővásárhely 2-1 in NB III - Southeast on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at ESMTK Stadion in Budapest.