ESMAC W 1–4 São Paulo W: Result & Stats

ESMAC W

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

São Paulo W

Larissa Sanchez 12'

Cacau 90'

Fernanda Palermo 20'

Rafinha Travalão 15', 2'

4/24/2022

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Evandro Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ESMAC W15%

×Draw21%

São Paulo W64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ESMAC WExpected goals in this matchSão Paulo W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

1.97

ESMAC W

0.81

São Paulo W

1.97

São Paulo W creates 143% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 60 away

0.71

creates per match

1.50

2.43

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

ESMAC W

0.71

São Paulo W

1.50

allows per match

ESMAC W

2.43

São Paulo W

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ESMAC W+0.00on par

São Paulo W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ESMAC W ↓

São Paulo W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

ESMAC W or draw

36%

ESMAC W or São Paulo W

79%

Draw or São Paulo W

85%

Winning margin

ESMAC W wins by 2+

4%

São Paulo W wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

ESMAC W 1+ goals

56%

ESMAC W 2+ goals

19%

ESMAC W 3+ goals

5%

São Paulo W 1+ goals

86%

São Paulo W 2+ goals

58%

São Paulo W 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

ESMAC W (draw refunded)

19%

São Paulo W (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ESMAC W at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

São Paulo W away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ESMAC W attack 0.71 + São Paulo W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.81

São Paulo W attack 1.50 + ESMAC W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

ESMAC W scores more

15%

level

21%

São Paulo W scores more

64%

São Paulo W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "São Paulo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

12'

15'

20'

31'

35'

L. Soure

46'

Radija← Milena

46'

Letícia← Joyce

46'

Thays← Ana Carolina

58'

Letícia Pantoja← Emmily Karla

58'

Luciene Baião← Lorraine Caixeta

58'

Gislaine← Pardal

64'

Giovana← Rafinha Travalão

69'

Thaisa Renata← Helayne

80'

Cacau← Naná

83'

Andrea Botelho← Larissa Sanchez

90'

Cacau

ESMAC

São

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Breno Luis

46'▲Radija←▼Milena

58'▲Letícia Pantoja←▼Emmily Karla

58'▲Luciene Baião←▼Lorraine Caixeta

69'▲Thaisa Renata←▼Helayne

83'▲Andrea Botelho←▼Larissa Sanchez

ESMAC W substitutes

RadijaPantojaBaiãoRenataBotelhoValleIzaCastro

Manager: Lucas Piccinato

46'▲Letícia←▼Joyce

46'▲Thays←▼Ana Carolina

58'▲Gislaine←▼Pardal

64'▲Giovana←▼Rafinha Travalão

80'▲Cacau←▼Naná

São Paulo W substitutes

LetíciaThaysGislaineGiovanaCacauMariaSerranaNataneTamires

Brasileiro Women: ESMAC W 1–4 São Paulo W

São Paulo W beat ESMAC W 4-1 in Brasileiro Women on April 24, 2022.

Goals: Rafinha Travalão (2', 15'), Larissa Sanchez (12'), Fernanda Palermo (20'), Cacau (90').

The match was played at Estádio Evandro Almeida in Belém, Pará.

ESMAC W vs São Paulo W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Brasileiro Women: ESMAC W 1–4 São Paulo W