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ESMAC W vs Real Brasília W — Brasileiro Women 2018

ESMAC W
ESMAC W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Real Brasília W
Real Brasília W
5/16/2022Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Evandro Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ESMAC W33%
×Draw24%
Real Brasília W43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ESMAC W
1.40
Real Brasília W
1.63

Real Brasília W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 40 away

creates per match

ESMAC W
0.71
Real Brasília W
0.82

allows per match

ESMAC W
2.43
Real Brasília W
2.08

finishing

ESMAC W+0.00on par
Real Brasília W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ESMAC W ↓

Real Brasília W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

ESMAC W or draw
57%
ESMAC W or Real Brasília W
76%
Draw or Real Brasília W
67%

Winning margin

ESMAC W wins by 2+
15%
Real Brasília W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

ESMAC W 1+ goals
75%
ESMAC W 2+ goals
41%
ESMAC W 3+ goals
17%
Real Brasília W 1+ goals
80%
Real Brasília W 2+ goals
48%
Real Brasília W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

ESMAC W (draw refunded)
43%
Real Brasília W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ESMAC W at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Real Brasília W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ESMAC W attack 0.71 + Real Brasília W defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.40

Real Brasília W attack 0.82 + ESMAC W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

ESMAC W scores more
33%
level
24%
Real Brasília W scores more
43%

Real Brasília W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Brasília W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ESMAC W vs Real Brasília W

Real Brasília W beat ESMAC W 3-0 in Brasileiro Women on May 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Evandro Almeida in Belém, Pará.