ESMAC W 1–4 Palmeiras W: Result & Stats

ESMAC W

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Palmeiras W

Gis 88' (pen)

Byanca Brasil 90+2' (pen)

Giovana 77'

Ary Borges 52'

Chú 7'

8/7/2022

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 15Estádio Francisco Vasques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ESMAC W13%

×Draw18%

Palmeiras W69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ESMAC WExpected goals in this matchPalmeiras W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

2.35

ESMAC W

0.93

Palmeiras W

2.35

Palmeiras W creates 153% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 60 away

0.71

creates per match

2.28

2.43

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

ESMAC W

0.71

Palmeiras W

2.28

allows per match

ESMAC W

2.43

Palmeiras W

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ESMAC W+0.00on par

Palmeiras W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ESMAC W ↓

Palmeiras W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–211%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

ESMAC W or draw

31%

ESMAC W or Palmeiras W

82%

Draw or Palmeiras W

87%

Winning margin

ESMAC W wins by 2+

4%

Palmeiras W wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

ESMAC W 1+ goals

61%

ESMAC W 2+ goals

24%

ESMAC W 3+ goals

7%

Palmeiras W 1+ goals

90%

Palmeiras W 2+ goals

68%

Palmeiras W 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

ESMAC W (draw refunded)

16%

Palmeiras W (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ESMAC W at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Palmeiras W away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ESMAC W attack 0.71 + Palmeiras W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.93

Palmeiras W attack 2.28 + ESMAC W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

ESMAC W scores more

13%

level

18%

Palmeiras W scores more

69%

Palmeiras W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Palmeiras W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Chú

32'

D. da Silva

39'

Camila

46'

Giovana← Patrícia Sochor

51'

A. Botelho

52'

Ary Borges

57'

Priscila← Larissa Sanchez

57'

Vanuza← Camila Brito

64'

Dudinha← Chú

69'

Ana Clara← Caroline

69'

Evelin Tosetto← Sâmia Pryscila

77'

Érica Saturnino← Lorena Castro

77'

Giovana

80'

Emely Paixão← Helayne

80'

Mika← Silvani Silva

83'

Doroty← Day Silva

87'

Julia

88'

GisPenalty

89'

Doroty

90'

Mika

90+2'

Byanca BrasilPenalty

ESMAC

Palmeiras

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Breno Luis

57'▲Priscila←▼Larissa Sanchez

57'▲Vanuza←▼Camila Brito

77'▲Érica Saturnino←▼Lorena Castro

80'▲Emely Paixão←▼Helayne

80'▲Mika←▼Silvani Silva

ESMAC W substitutes

PriscilaVanuzaSaturninoPaixãoMikaCatharyne

Manager: Ricardo Belli

46'▲Giovana←▼Patrícia Sochor

64'▲Dudinha←▼Chú

69'▲Ana Clara←▼Caroline

69'▲Evelin Tosetto←▼Sâmia Pryscila

83'▲Doroty←▼Day Silva

Palmeiras W substitutes

GiovanaDudinhaClaraTosettoDorotyAwanny