ESMAC W 0–4 Internacional RS W: Result & Stats

ESMAC W

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional RS W

Milena 90+4'

Bia Lopes 78'

Maiara Niehues 59'

Duda 47'

3/13/2022

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Evandro Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ESMAC W19%

×Draw22%

Internacional RS W60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ESMAC WExpected goals in this matchInternacional RS W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.96

ESMAC W

0.99

Internacional RS W

1.96

Internacional RS W creates 98% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 64 away

0.71

creates per match

1.48

2.43

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

ESMAC W

0.71

Internacional RS W

1.48

allows per match

ESMAC W

2.43

Internacional RS W

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ESMAC W+0.00on par

Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ESMAC W ↓

Internacional RS W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

ESMAC W or draw

40%

ESMAC W or Internacional RS W

78%

Draw or Internacional RS W

81%

Winning margin

ESMAC W wins by 2+

6%

Internacional RS W wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

ESMAC W 1+ goals

63%

ESMAC W 2+ goals

26%

ESMAC W 3+ goals

8%

Internacional RS W 1+ goals

86%

Internacional RS W 2+ goals

58%

Internacional RS W 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

ESMAC W (draw refunded)

24%

Internacional RS W (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ESMAC W at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Internacional RS W away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ESMAC W attack 0.71 + Internacional RS W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.99

Internacional RS W attack 1.48 + ESMAC W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

ESMAC W scores more

19%

level

22%

Internacional RS W scores more

60%

Internacional RS W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Maiara Niehues← Maiara Lisboa

39'

40'

46'

Isa Haas← Isabela Capelinha

47'

Duda

50'

Mari← Lorena Castro

51'

55'

Emily Mata← Thaisa Renata

55'

Letícia Pantoja← Milena

59'

Maiara Niehues

71'

75'

Bia Lopes← Tamara

75'

Milena← Negona

78'

Bia Lopes

82'

Lorraine Caixeta← Luciene Baião

82'

Silvani Silva← Raquel Maia

84'

Priscila Flor← Millene

90+3'

90+4'

Milena

ESMAC

Internacional

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Mercy Nunes

50'▲Mari←▼Lorena Castro

55'▲Emily Mata←▼Thaisa Renata

55'▲Letícia Pantoja←▼Milena

82'▲Lorraine Caixeta←▼Luciene Baião

82'▲Silvani Silva←▼Raquel Maia

ESMAC W substitutes

MariMataPantojaCaixetaSilvaIzaPetryBotelhoKarlaRebecaMoreira

Manager: Mauricio Salgado

20'▲Maiara Niehues←▼Maiara Lisboa

46'▲Isa Haas←▼Isabela Capelinha

75'▲Bia Lopes←▼Tamara

75'▲Milena←▼Negona

84'▲Priscila Flor←▼Millene

Internacional RS W substitutes

NiehuesHaasLopesMilenaFlorDayanaBarbieriAlvesThamirys

Match Recap: ESMAC W vs Internacional RS W

Internacional RS W beat ESMAC W 4-0 in Brasileiro Women on March 13, 2022.

Goals: Duda (47'), Maiara Niehues (59'), Bia Lopes (78'), Milena (90+4').

The match was played at Estádio Evandro Almeida in Belém, Pará.

ESMAC W vs Internacional RS W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: ESMAC W vs Internacional RS W