ESMAC W 0–1 Atlético Mineiro W: Result & Stats

ESMAC W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atlético Mineiro W

D. Rodríguez 20'

6/12/2022

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Evandro Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

ESMAC W31%

×Draw24%

Atlético Mineiro W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ESMAC WExpected goals in this matchAtlético Mineiro W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.73

ESMAC W

1.37

Atlético Mineiro W

1.73

Atlético Mineiro W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 30 away

0.71

creates per match

1.03

2.43

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

ESMAC W

0.71

Atlético Mineiro W

1.03

allows per match

ESMAC W

2.43

Atlético Mineiro W

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ESMAC W+0.00on par

Atlético Mineiro W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ESMAC W ↓

Atlético Mineiro W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

ESMAC W or draw

54%

ESMAC W or Atlético Mineiro W

76%

Draw or Atlético Mineiro W

69%

Winning margin

ESMAC W wins by 2+

13%

Atlético Mineiro W wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

ESMAC W 1+ goals

75%

ESMAC W 2+ goals

40%

ESMAC W 3+ goals

16%

Atlético Mineiro W 1+ goals

82%

Atlético Mineiro W 2+ goals

52%

Atlético Mineiro W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

ESMAC W (draw refunded)

40%

Atlético Mineiro W (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ESMAC W at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

Atlético Mineiro W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ESMAC W attack 0.71 + Atlético Mineiro W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.37

Atlético Mineiro W attack 1.03 + ESMAC W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

ESMAC W scores more

31%

level

24%

Atlético Mineiro W scores more

46%

Atlético Mineiro W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Radija← Mari

20'

D. Rodríguez

46'

Iara← Y. Cuesta

46'

Rafaela← L. Gómez

58'

Camila Brito← Larissa Sanchez

62'

Luana← Nathane

77'

Dandara← Soraya Franca

78'

Lei← Bárbara Santos

90+3'

Emely Paixão← Silvani Silva

90+3'

Mika← Luciene Baião

ESMAC

Atlético

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Breno Luis

18'▲Radija←▼Mari

58'▲Camila Brito←▼Larissa Sanchez

90+3'▲Emely Paixão←▼Silvani Silva

90+3'▲Mika←▼Luciene Baião

ESMAC W substitutes

RadijaBritoPaixãoMikaIzaCatharyne

Manager: Lindsay Camila

46'▲Iara←▼Y. Cuesta

46'▲Rafaela←▼L. Gómez

62'▲Luana←▼Nathane

77'▲Dandara←▼Soraya Franca

78'▲Lei←▼Bárbara Santos

Atlético Mineiro W substitutes

IaraRafaelaLuanaDandaraLeiAninhaVergaraJayanneNicole

Match Recap: ESMAC W vs Atlético Mineiro W

Atlético Mineiro W beat ESMAC W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on June 12, 2022.

Goals: D. Rodríguez (20').

The match was played at Estádio Evandro Almeida in Belém, Pará.

ESMAC W vs Atlético Mineiro W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: ESMAC W vs Atlético Mineiro W