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Eskişehirspor vs Muş Sport Klübü — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Eskişehirspor
Eskişehirspor
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Muş Sport Klübü
Muş Sport Klübü
9/29/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundYeni Eskişehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Eskişehirspor39%
×Draw22%
Muş Sport Klübü39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskişehirspor
1.77
Muş Sport Klübü
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Eskişehirspor
1.40
Muş Sport Klübü
1.57

allows per match

Eskişehirspor
2.00
Muş Sport Klübü
2.14

finishing

Eskişehirspor+0.00on par
Muş Sport Klübü+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskişehirspor ↓

Muş Sport Klübü →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Eskişehirspor or draw
61%
Eskişehirspor or Muş Sport Klübü
78%
Draw or Muş Sport Klübü
61%

Winning margin

Eskişehirspor wins by 2+
20%
Muş Sport Klübü wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Eskişehirspor 1+ goals
83%
Eskişehirspor 2+ goals
53%
Eskişehirspor 3+ goals
26%
Muş Sport Klübü 1+ goals
83%
Muş Sport Klübü 2+ goals
53%
Muş Sport Klübü 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)
49%
Muş Sport Klübü (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskişehirspor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Muş Sport Klübü away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskişehirspor attack 1.40 + Muş Sport Klübü defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.77

Muş Sport Klübü attack 1.57 + Eskişehirspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Eskişehirspor scores more
39%
level
22%
Muş Sport Klübü scores more
39%

Eskişehirspor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Eskişehirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eskişehirspor vs Muş Sport Klübü

Muş Sport Klübü beat Eskişehirspor 3-2 in Türkiye Kupası on September 29, 2022.

The match was played at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu in Eskişehir.