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Eskişehirspor vs Muğlaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Eskişehirspor
Eskişehirspor
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Muğlaspor
Muğlaspor
9/18/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundProf. Dr. Fethi Heper Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Eskişehirspor24%
×Draw22%
Muğlaspor54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskişehirspor
1.20
Muğlaspor
1.92

Muğlaspor creates 60% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Eskişehirspor
1.40
Muğlaspor
1.83

allows per match

Eskişehirspor
2.00
Muğlaspor
1.00

finishing

Eskişehirspor+0.00on par
Muğlaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskişehirspor ↓

Muğlaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Eskişehirspor or draw
46%
Eskişehirspor or Muğlaspor
78%
Draw or Muğlaspor
76%

Winning margin

Eskişehirspor wins by 2+
9%
Muğlaspor wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Eskişehirspor 1+ goals
70%
Eskişehirspor 2+ goals
34%
Eskişehirspor 3+ goals
12%
Muğlaspor 1+ goals
85%
Muğlaspor 2+ goals
57%
Muğlaspor 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)
31%
Muğlaspor (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskişehirspor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Muğlaspor away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskişehirspor attack 1.40 + Muğlaspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Muğlaspor attack 1.83 + Eskişehirspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Eskişehirspor scores more
24%
level
22%
Muğlaspor scores more
54%

Muğlaspor at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Muğlaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eskişehirspor vs Muğlaspor

Muğlaspor beat Eskişehirspor 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 18, 2025.

The match was played at Prof. Dr. Fethi Heper Stadyumu in Eskişehir.