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Eskişehirspor vs Iğdır FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Eskişehirspor
Eskişehirspor
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
10/27/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundYeni Eskişehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Eskişehirspor35%
×Draw24%
Iğdır FK41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskişehirspor
1.45
Iğdır FK
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Eskişehirspor
1.40
Iğdır FK
1.17

allows per match

Eskişehirspor
2.00
Iğdır FK
1.50

finishing

Eskişehirspor+0.00on par
Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskişehirspor ↓

Iğdır FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Eskişehirspor or draw
59%
Eskişehirspor or Iğdır FK
76%
Draw or Iğdır FK
65%

Winning margin

Eskişehirspor wins by 2+
16%
Iğdır FK wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Eskişehirspor 1+ goals
77%
Eskişehirspor 2+ goals
42%
Eskişehirspor 3+ goals
18%
Iğdır FK 1+ goals
79%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
47%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)
46%
Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskişehirspor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Iğdır FK away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskişehirspor attack 1.40 + Iğdır FK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Iğdır FK attack 1.17 + Eskişehirspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eskişehirspor scores more
35%
level
24%
Iğdır FK scores more
41%

Iğdır FK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Iğdır FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Eskişehirspor 0–2 Iğdır FK

Iğdır FK beat Eskişehirspor 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu in Eskişehir.