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Eskişehirspor vs Gaziantep FK — 1. Lig 2018

Eskişehirspor
Eskişehirspor
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
9/23/20181. Lig1. Lig · Round 6Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eskişehirspor20%
×Draw23%
Gaziantep FK58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskişehirspor
0.98
Gaziantep FK
1.86

Gaziantep FK creates 90% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Eskişehirspor
1.02
Gaziantep FK
2.00

allows per match

Eskişehirspor
1.73
Gaziantep FK
0.94

finishing

Eskişehirspor+0.00on par
Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskişehirspor ↓

Gaziantep FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eskişehirspor or draw
42%
Eskişehirspor or Gaziantep FK
77%
Draw or Gaziantep FK
80%

Winning margin

Eskişehirspor wins by 2+
7%
Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Eskişehirspor 1+ goals
62%
Eskişehirspor 2+ goals
26%
Eskişehirspor 3+ goals
8%
Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
84%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
55%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)
25%
Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskişehirspor at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskişehirspor attack 1.02 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Gaziantep FK attack 2.00 + Eskişehirspor defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Eskişehirspor scores more
20%
level
23%
Gaziantep FK scores more
58%

Gaziantep FK at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eskişehirspor vs Gaziantep FK

Eskişehirspor and Gaziantep FK drew 0-0 in 1. Lig on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu in Eskişehir.