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Eskişehirspor vs Erzurumspor FK — 1. Lig 2018

Eskişehirspor
Eskişehirspor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
11/23/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 12Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Eskişehirspor27%
×Draw26%
Erzurumspor FK46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskişehirspor
1.04
Erzurumspor FK
1.44

Erzurumspor FK creates 38% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 110 away

creates per match

Eskişehirspor
1.02
Erzurumspor FK
1.16

allows per match

Eskişehirspor
1.73
Erzurumspor FK
1.06

finishing

Eskişehirspor+0.00on par
Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskişehirspor ↓

Erzurumspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Eskişehirspor or draw
54%
Eskişehirspor or Erzurumspor FK
74%
Draw or Erzurumspor FK
73%

Winning margin

Eskişehirspor wins by 2+
10%
Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Eskişehirspor 1+ goals
65%
Eskişehirspor 2+ goals
28%
Eskişehirspor 3+ goals
9%
Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
76%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
42%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)
37%
Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskişehirspor at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskişehirspor attack 1.02 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Eskişehirspor defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eskişehirspor scores more
27%
level
26%
Erzurumspor FK scores more
46%

Erzurumspor FK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eskişehirspor vs Erzurumspor FK

Erzurumspor FK beat Eskişehirspor 2-1 in 1. Lig on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu in Eskişehir.