Eskişehirspor 2–2 Altay: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Eskişehirspor

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Altay

O. Bayramoğlu 68'

M. Özcan 53'

Y. Hacımustafaoğlu 86'

K. Avcı 85'

6/27/2020

1. Lig · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Eskişehirspor31%

×Draw26%

Altay43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EskişehirsporExpected goals in this matchAltay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.46

Eskişehirspor

1.19

Altay

1.46

Altay creates 23% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 77 away

0.93

creates per match

1.22

1.70

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Eskişehirspor

0.93

Altay

1.22

allows per match

Eskişehirspor

1.70

Altay

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskişehirspor+0.00on par

Altay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskişehirspor ↓

Altay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Eskişehirspor or draw

57%

Eskişehirspor or Altay

74%

Draw or Altay

69%

Winning margin

Eskişehirspor wins by 2+

13%

Altay wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Eskişehirspor 1+ goals

70%

Eskişehirspor 2+ goals

33%

Eskişehirspor 3+ goals

12%

Altay 1+ goals

77%

Altay 2+ goals

43%

Altay 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Eskişehirspor (draw refunded)

42%

Altay (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskişehirspor at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.70 · 44 matches

Altay away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskişehirspor attack 0.93 + Altay defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Altay attack 1.22 + Eskişehirspor defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Eskişehirspor scores more

31%

level

26%

Altay scores more

43%

Altay at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Altay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

F. Balaban

44'

H. Yildiz

45+2'

O. Bayramoğlu← İ. Öner

53'

M. Özcan↳ O. Bayramoğlu

65'

T. Şahin← E. Kartal

65'

Y. Hacımustafaoğlu← A. Putilo

68'

O. Bayramoğlu↳ M. Özcan

72'

L. Kappel

85'

K. Avcı↳ Marco Paixão

86'

T. Yakut← H. Uyğur

86'

B. Tanır← F. Polat

86'

Y. Hacımustafaoğlu↳ A. Bardakcı

90+1'

90+1'

90+1'

90+1'

90+7'

B. Çağlıyan← M. Demir

90+4'

M. Uslu← A. Tatos

Possession

Shots

Statistics

EskişehirsporAltay

Overview

44%Possession56%

6Total Shots15

6Corners7

11Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots15

4On Target7

2Off Target8

Passing

44%Possession56%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides11