Eskilstuna United W 2–3 Sunnanå W: Result & Stats

Eskilstuna United W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Sunnanå W

L. Özdemir 55'

Rosita 24'

W. Dahlgren 79', 56'

T. Sahlman 59'

9/1/2024

Elitettan · Round 17Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Eskilstuna United W56%

×Draw23%

Sunnanå W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eskilstuna United WExpected goals in this matchSunnanå W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.02

Eskilstuna United W

1.83

Sunnanå W

1.02

Eskilstuna United W creates 79% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 26 away

1.85

creates per match

1.12

0.92

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Eskilstuna United W

1.85

Sunnanå W

1.12

allows per match

Eskilstuna United W

0.92

Sunnanå W

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Sunnanå W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilstuna United W ↓

Sunnanå W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Eskilstuna United W or draw

79%

Eskilstuna United W or Sunnanå W

77%

Draw or Sunnanå W

44%

Winning margin

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

32%

Sunnanå W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

84%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

54%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

28%

Sunnanå W 1+ goals

64%

Sunnanå W 2+ goals

27%

Sunnanå W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

73%

Sunnanå W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilstuna United W at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.92 · 39 matches

Sunnanå W away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.85 + Sunnanå W defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sunnanå W attack 1.12 + Eskilstuna United W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Eskilstuna United W scores more

56%

level

23%

Sunnanå W scores more

21%

Eskilstuna United W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Eskilstuna United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Rosita

30'

T. Youhana← K. Collin

55'

L. Özdemir

56'

W. Dahlgren

58'

S. Niklasson← M. Eriholm

59'

T. Sahlman

65'

E. Burman

71'

S. van den Bulk← C. Eriksson

79'

W. Dahlgren

90'

H. Sjodahl

Eskilstuna

Sunnanå

⚽

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: V. Barsley

30'▲T. Youhana←▼K. Collin

58'▲S. Niklasson←▼M. Eriholm

71'▲S. van den Bulk←▼C. Eriksson

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

YouhanaNiklassonBulkWiklundBülowTilleniusSelling

Manager: F. Markström

Sunnanå W substitutes

HettaDahlqvistLundqvistLindmarkGustavsson