Eskilstuna United W 2–0 Jitex W: Result & Stats

Eskilstuna United W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jitex W

N. Robertson 58'

F. Eriksson 51'

4/13/2024

Elitettan · Round 1Larslunda IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Eskilstuna United W52%

×Draw23%

Jitex W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eskilstuna United WExpected goals in this matchJitex W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.24

Eskilstuna United W

1.88

Jitex W

1.24

Eskilstuna United W creates 52% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 69 away

1.85

creates per match

1.55

0.92

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Eskilstuna United W

1.85

Jitex W

1.55

allows per match

Eskilstuna United W

0.92

Jitex W

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Jitex W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilstuna United W ↓

Jitex W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Eskilstuna United W or draw

75%

Eskilstuna United W or Jitex W

77%

Draw or Jitex W

48%

Winning margin

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

30%

Jitex W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

85%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

56%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

29%

Jitex W 1+ goals

71%

Jitex W 2+ goals

35%

Jitex W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

67%

Jitex W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilstuna United W at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.92 · 39 matches

Jitex W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.85 + Jitex W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.88

Jitex W attack 1.55 + Eskilstuna United W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Eskilstuna United W scores more

52%

level

23%

Jitex W scores more

25%

Eskilstuna United W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Eskilstuna United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

F. Eriksson

58'

N. Robertson

68'

C. Eriksson← L. Hallin

69'

H. Comnell← E. Palklint

76'

W. Bergman← N. Morup

86'

P. Jerzak← E. Tillenius

90'

H. Andreasson← E. Smith Ygfeldt

90'

V. Stenberg← T. Höglund

Eskilstuna

Jitex

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: V. Barsley

68'▲C. Eriksson←▼L. Hallin

86'▲P. Jerzak←▼E. Tillenius

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

ErikssonJerzakEriholmSellingNiklassonWallmarkWiklund

Manager: D. Ivarsson

69'▲H. Comnell←▼E. Palklint

76'▲W. Bergman←▼N. Morup

90'▲H. Andreasson←▼E. Smith Ygfeldt

90'▲V. Stenberg←▼T. Höglund

Jitex W substitutes

ComnellBergmanAndreassonStenbergTidblom