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Eskilstuna City vs Trosa-Vagnhärad SK — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Eskilstuna City
Eskilstuna City
FT
1 – 1
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
8/15/2021Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 20Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Eskilstuna City51%
×Draw21%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskilstuna City
2.20
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.59

Eskilstuna City creates 38% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 34 away

creates per match

Eskilstuna City
1.64
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.26

allows per match

Eskilstuna City
1.93
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
2.76

finishing

Eskilstuna City+0.00on par
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilstuna City ↓

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Eskilstuna City or draw
72%
Eskilstuna City or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
79%
Draw or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
49%

Winning margin

Eskilstuna City wins by 2+
31%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Eskilstuna City 1+ goals
89%
Eskilstuna City 2+ goals
64%
Eskilstuna City 3+ goals
37%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals
80%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals
47%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Eskilstuna City (draw refunded)
65%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilstuna City at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilstuna City attack 1.64 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.20

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.26 + Eskilstuna City defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eskilstuna City scores more
51%
level
21%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more
28%

Eskilstuna City at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eskilstuna City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Eskilstuna City 1–1 Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

Eskilstuna City and Trosa-Vagnhärad SK drew 1-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.