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Eskilsminne vs Utsikten — Ettan - Södra 2019

Eskilsminne
Eskilsminne
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Utsikten
Utsikten
5/18/2019Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Round 8Harlyckans IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Eskilsminne45%
×Draw24%
Utsikten31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskilsminne
1.68
Utsikten
1.36

Eskilsminne creates 24% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 53 away

creates per match

Eskilsminne
1.70
Utsikten
1.38

allows per match

Eskilsminne
1.35
Utsikten
1.66

finishing

Eskilsminne+0.00on par
Utsikten+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilsminne ↓

Utsikten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Eskilsminne or draw
69%
Eskilsminne or Utsikten
76%
Draw or Utsikten
55%

Winning margin

Eskilsminne wins by 2+
23%
Utsikten wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Eskilsminne 1+ goals
81%
Eskilsminne 2+ goals
50%
Eskilsminne 3+ goals
24%
Utsikten 1+ goals
74%
Utsikten 2+ goals
39%
Utsikten 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Eskilsminne (draw refunded)
59%
Utsikten (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilsminne at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

Utsikten away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilsminne attack 1.70 + Utsikten defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.68

Utsikten attack 1.38 + Eskilsminne defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eskilsminne scores more
45%
level
24%
Utsikten scores more
31%

Eskilsminne at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eskilsminne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Eskilsminne 4–1 Utsikten

Eskilsminne beat Utsikten 4-1 in Ettan - Södra on May 18, 2019.

The match was played at Harlyckans IP in Helsingborg.