Eskilsminne 0–5 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

Eskilsminne

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Ostersunds FK

2/23/2020

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Olympiafältet Plan 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Eskilsminne15%

×Draw20%

Ostersunds FK65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EskilsminneExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

2.03

Eskilsminne

0.84

Ostersunds FK

2.03

Ostersunds FK creates 142% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

0.63

creates per match

1.31

2.75

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Eskilsminne

0.63

Ostersunds FK

1.31

allows per match

Eskilsminne

2.75

Ostersunds FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskilsminne+0.00on par

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilsminne ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Eskilsminne or draw

35%

Eskilsminne or Ostersunds FK

80%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

85%

Winning margin

Eskilsminne wins by 2+

4%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Eskilsminne 1+ goals

57%

Eskilsminne 2+ goals

21%

Eskilsminne 3+ goals

5%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

87%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

60%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Eskilsminne (draw refunded)

18%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilsminne at home — creates 0.63, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilsminne attack 0.63 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.84

Ostersunds FK attack 1.31 + Eskilsminne defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Eskilsminne scores more

15%

level

20%

Ostersunds FK scores more

65%

Ostersunds FK at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff