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Eskilsminne vs Norrby IF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Eskilsminne
Eskilsminne
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Norrby IF
Norrby IF
6/8/2024Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 12Harlyckans IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Eskilsminne38%
×Draw25%
Norrby IF37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskilsminne
1.49
Norrby IF
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 45 away

creates per match

Eskilsminne
1.71
Norrby IF
1.56

allows per match

Eskilsminne
1.36
Norrby IF
1.27

finishing

Eskilsminne+0.00on par
Norrby IF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilsminne ↓

Norrby IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Eskilsminne or draw
63%
Eskilsminne or Norrby IF
75%
Draw or Norrby IF
62%

Winning margin

Eskilsminne wins by 2+
18%
Norrby IF wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Eskilsminne 1+ goals
77%
Eskilsminne 2+ goals
44%
Eskilsminne 3+ goals
19%
Norrby IF 1+ goals
77%
Norrby IF 2+ goals
43%
Norrby IF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Eskilsminne (draw refunded)
51%
Norrby IF (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilsminne at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.36 · 83 matches

Norrby IF away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilsminne attack 1.71 + Norrby IF defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.49

Norrby IF attack 1.56 + Eskilsminne defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Eskilsminne scores more
38%
level
25%
Norrby IF scores more
37%

Eskilsminne at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Eskilsminne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eskilsminne vs Norrby IF

Eskilsminne beat Norrby IF 3-0 in Ettan - Södra on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Harlyckans IP in Helsingborg.