Eskilsminne 1–0 Norrby IF: Result & Stats

Eskilsminne

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Norrby IF

8/21/2019

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundHarlyckans IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Eskilsminne28%

×Draw25%

Norrby IF48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EskilsminneExpected goals in this matchNorrby IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.63

Eskilsminne

1.19

Norrby IF

1.63

Norrby IF creates 37% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

0.63

creates per match

0.50

2.75

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Eskilsminne

0.63

Norrby IF

0.50

allows per match

Eskilsminne

2.75

Norrby IF

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskilsminne+0.00on par

Norrby IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilsminne ↓

Norrby IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Eskilsminne or draw

52%

Eskilsminne or Norrby IF

75%

Draw or Norrby IF

72%

Winning margin

Eskilsminne wins by 2+

11%

Norrby IF wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Eskilsminne 1+ goals

70%

Eskilsminne 2+ goals

33%

Eskilsminne 3+ goals

12%

Norrby IF 1+ goals

80%

Norrby IF 2+ goals

48%

Norrby IF 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Eskilsminne (draw refunded)

37%

Norrby IF (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilsminne at home — creates 0.63, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

Norrby IF away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilsminne attack 0.63 + Norrby IF defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.19

Norrby IF attack 0.50 + Eskilsminne defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eskilsminne scores more

28%

level

25%

Norrby IF scores more

48%

Norrby IF at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Norrby IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff