Eskilsminne 0–4 AIK Stockholm: Result & Stats

Eskilsminne

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

AIK Stockholm

2/27/2022

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Olympiafältet Plan 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Eskilsminne8%

×Draw13%

AIK Stockholm79%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EskilsminneExpected goals in this matchAIK Stockholm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

2.93

Eskilsminne

0.84

AIK Stockholm

2.93

AIK Stockholm creates 249% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

0.63

creates per match

3.11

2.75

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Eskilsminne

0.63

AIK Stockholm

3.11

allows per match

Eskilsminne

2.75

AIK Stockholm

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskilsminne+0.00on par

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilsminne ↓

AIK Stockholm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–17%

0–210%

0–310%

0–47%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Eskilsminne or draw

21%

Eskilsminne or AIK Stockholm

87%

Draw or AIK Stockholm

92%

Winning margin

Eskilsminne wins by 2+

2%

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

59%

Team goals

Eskilsminne 1+ goals

57%

Eskilsminne 2+ goals

21%

Eskilsminne 3+ goals

5%

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

94%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

78%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Eskilsminne (draw refunded)

9%

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilsminne at home — creates 0.63, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 3.11, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilsminne attack 0.63 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.84

AIK Stockholm attack 3.11 + Eskilsminne defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Eskilsminne scores more

8%

level

13%

AIK Stockholm scores more

79%

AIK Stockholm at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff