Eskhata 4–3 Sardor Tursunzoda: Result & Stats

Eskhata

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Sardor Tursunzoda

5/2/2026

Vysshaya Liga · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Eskhata45%

×Draw23%

Sardor Tursunzoda32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EskhataExpected goals in this matchSardor Tursunzoda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.42

Eskhata

1.72

Sardor Tursunzoda

1.42

Eskhata creates 21% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 7 away

1.15

creates per match

1.43

1.41

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Eskhata

1.15

Sardor Tursunzoda

1.43

allows per match

Eskhata

1.41

Sardor Tursunzoda

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskhata+0.00on par

Sardor Tursunzoda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskhata ↓

Sardor Tursunzoda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Eskhata or draw

68%

Eskhata or Sardor Tursunzoda

77%

Draw or Sardor Tursunzoda

55%

Winning margin

Eskhata wins by 2+

24%

Sardor Tursunzoda wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Eskhata 1+ goals

82%

Eskhata 2+ goals

51%

Eskhata 3+ goals

25%

Sardor Tursunzoda 1+ goals

76%

Sardor Tursunzoda 2+ goals

41%

Sardor Tursunzoda 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Eskhata (draw refunded)

58%

Sardor Tursunzoda (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskhata at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

Sardor Tursunzoda away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskhata attack 1.15 + Sardor Tursunzoda defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sardor Tursunzoda attack 1.43 + Eskhata defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eskhata scores more

45%

level

23%

Sardor Tursunzoda scores more

32%

Eskhata at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eskhata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff