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Eskhata vs Ravshan — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Eskhata
Eskhata
FT
1 – 0
Ravshan
Ravshan
Unknown 90'
12/18/2023Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Championship Round - 5Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Eskhata38%
×Draw27%
Ravshan35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskhata
1.27
Ravshan
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 72 away

creates per match

Eskhata
1.27
Ravshan
1.11

allows per match

Eskhata
1.33
Ravshan
1.26

finishing

Eskhata+0.00on par
Ravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskhata ↓

Ravshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Eskhata or draw
65%
Eskhata or Ravshan
73%
Draw or Ravshan
62%

Winning margin

Eskhata wins by 2+
17%
Ravshan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Eskhata 1+ goals
72%
Eskhata 2+ goals
36%
Eskhata 3+ goals
14%
Ravshan 1+ goals
70%
Ravshan 2+ goals
34%
Ravshan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Eskhata (draw refunded)
52%
Ravshan (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskhata at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.33 · 64 matches

Ravshan away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskhata attack 1.27 + Ravshan defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ravshan attack 1.11 + Eskhata defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Eskhata scores more
38%
level
27%
Ravshan scores more
35%

Eskhata at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Eskhata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eskhata vs Ravshan

Eskhata beat Ravshan 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on December 18, 2023.

Goals: ? (90').

The match was played at Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti in Khujand.