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Eskhata vs Kuktosh — Vysshaya Liga 2020

Eskhata
Eskhata
FT
7 – 0
Kuktosh
Kuktosh
6/16/2024Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 10Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Eskhata50%
×Draw23%
Kuktosh27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskhata
1.83
Kuktosh
1.29

Eskhata creates 42% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 53 away

creates per match

Eskhata
1.27
Kuktosh
1.26

allows per match

Eskhata
1.33
Kuktosh
2.40

finishing

Eskhata+0.00on par
Kuktosh+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskhata ↓

Kuktosh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Eskhata or draw
73%
Eskhata or Kuktosh
77%
Draw or Kuktosh
50%

Winning margin

Eskhata wins by 2+
28%
Kuktosh wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Eskhata 1+ goals
84%
Eskhata 2+ goals
54%
Eskhata 3+ goals
28%
Kuktosh 1+ goals
72%
Kuktosh 2+ goals
37%
Kuktosh 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Eskhata (draw refunded)
65%
Kuktosh (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskhata at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.33 · 64 matches

Kuktosh away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.40 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskhata attack 1.27 + Kuktosh defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.83

Kuktosh attack 1.26 + Eskhata defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Eskhata scores more
50%
level
23%
Kuktosh scores more
27%

Eskhata at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Eskhata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eskhata vs Kuktosh

Eskhata beat Kuktosh 7-0 in Vysshaya Liga on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti in Khujand.