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Eskhata vs Kuktosh — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Eskhata
Eskhata
FT
3 – 1
Kuktosh
Kuktosh
8/15/2021Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 15Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Eskhata49%
×Draw23%
Kuktosh28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskhata
1.80
Kuktosh
1.31

Eskhata creates 37% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 57 away

creates per match

Eskhata
1.27
Kuktosh
1.30

allows per match

Eskhata
1.33
Kuktosh
2.33

finishing

Eskhata+0.00on par
Kuktosh+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskhata ↓

Kuktosh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Eskhata or draw
72%
Eskhata or Kuktosh
77%
Draw or Kuktosh
51%

Winning margin

Eskhata wins by 2+
27%
Kuktosh wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Eskhata 1+ goals
83%
Eskhata 2+ goals
54%
Eskhata 3+ goals
27%
Kuktosh 1+ goals
73%
Kuktosh 2+ goals
38%
Kuktosh 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Eskhata (draw refunded)
64%
Kuktosh (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskhata at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.33 · 64 matches

Kuktosh away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.33 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskhata attack 1.27 + Kuktosh defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.80

Kuktosh attack 1.30 + Eskhata defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Eskhata scores more
49%
level
23%
Kuktosh scores more
28%

Eskhata at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Eskhata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eskhata vs Kuktosh

Eskhata beat Kuktosh 3-1 in Vysshaya Liga on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Khujand.