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Eskhata vs Khosilot Farkhor — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Eskhata
Eskhata
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
D. Karimov 90'
Z. Tursunov 37'
S. Song 32'
5/2/2025Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 7Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Eskhata41%
×Draw25%
Khosilot Farkhor34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskhata
1.45
Khosilot Farkhor
1.30

Eskhata creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 35 away

creates per match

Eskhata
1.19
Khosilot Farkhor
1.23

allows per match

Eskhata
1.38
Khosilot Farkhor
1.71

finishing

Eskhata+0.00on par
Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskhata ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Eskhata or draw
66%
Eskhata or Khosilot Farkhor
75%
Draw or Khosilot Farkhor
59%

Winning margin

Eskhata wins by 2+
19%
Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Eskhata 1+ goals
77%
Eskhata 2+ goals
42%
Eskhata 3+ goals
18%
Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
73%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
37%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Eskhata (draw refunded)
55%
Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskhata at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.71 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskhata attack 1.19 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.45

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.23 + Eskhata defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eskhata scores more
41%
level
25%
Khosilot Farkhor scores more
34%

Eskhata at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eskhata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
S. Song
37'
Z. Tursunov
90'
D. Karimov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eskhata vs Khosilot Farkhor

Eskhata beat Khosilot Farkhor 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on May 2, 2025.

Goals: S. Song (32'), Z. Tursunov (37'), D. Karimov (90').

The match was played at Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti in Khujand.