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Eskhata vs Istiqlol — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Eskhata
Eskhata
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Istiqlol
Istiqlol
6/30/2023Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 5Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Eskhata18%
×Draw22%
Istiqlol60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eskhata
0.95
Istiqlol
1.93

Istiqlol creates 103% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 100 away

creates per match

Eskhata
1.27
Istiqlol
2.52

allows per match

Eskhata
1.33
Istiqlol
0.63

finishing

Eskhata+0.00on par
Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskhata ↓

Istiqlol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eskhata or draw
40%
Eskhata or Istiqlol
78%
Draw or Istiqlol
82%

Winning margin

Eskhata wins by 2+
6%
Istiqlol wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Eskhata 1+ goals
61%
Eskhata 2+ goals
25%
Eskhata 3+ goals
7%
Istiqlol 1+ goals
85%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
57%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Eskhata (draw refunded)
23%
Istiqlol (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskhata at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.33 · 64 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 2.52, concedes 0.63 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskhata attack 1.27 + Istiqlol defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.95

Istiqlol attack 2.52 + Eskhata defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Eskhata scores more
18%
level
22%
Istiqlol scores more
60%

Istiqlol at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Eskhata 0–3 Istiqlol

Istiqlol beat Eskhata 3-0 in Vysshaya Liga on June 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti in Khujand.