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Esenler Erokspor vs Vanspor FK — 1. Lig 2018

Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
Preview
16:00
Vanspor FK
Vanspor FK
5/2/20271. Lig1. Lig · Round 37Esenler Stadium
Big match
47%
Esenler Erokspor
model favours
47%24%29%

Their last 5 meetings averaged just 0.8 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Esenler Erokspor47%
×Draw24%
Vanspor FK29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esenler Erokspor
1.65
Vanspor FK
1.25

Esenler Erokspor creates 32% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 19 away

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.77
Vanspor FK
1.42

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.08
Vanspor FK
1.53

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par
Vanspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Vanspor FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw
71%
Esenler Erokspor or Vanspor FK
76%
Draw or Vanspor FK
53%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
24%
Vanspor FK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
81%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
49%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
23%
Vanspor FK 1+ goals
71%
Vanspor FK 2+ goals
36%
Vanspor FK 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
62%
Vanspor FK (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Vanspor FK away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.77 + Vanspor FK defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

Vanspor FK attack 1.42 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more
47%
level
24%
Vanspor FK scores more
29%

Esenler Erokspor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Esenler Erokspor sit 3, Vanspor FK 14 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Erokspor
LDLWW
FK
LLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esenler Erokspor face Vanspor FK (1. Lig)

1. Lig returns with Esenler Erokspor hosting Vanspor FK. Match starts May 2, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Esenler Erokspor host Vanspor FK at Esenler Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.