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Esenler Erokspor vs Uşak Spor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Uşak Spor
Uşak Spor
9/24/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundEsenler Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Esenler Erokspor65%
×Draw19%
Uşak Spor16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esenler Erokspor
2.25
Uşak Spor
1.00

Esenler Erokspor creates 125% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.50
Uşak Spor
0.33

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.67
Uşak Spor
3.00

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par
Uşak Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Uşak Spor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw
84%
Esenler Erokspor or Uşak Spor
81%
Draw or Uşak Spor
35%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
42%
Uşak Spor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
89%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
65%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
39%
Uşak Spor 1+ goals
63%
Uşak Spor 2+ goals
26%
Uşak Spor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
81%
Uşak Spor (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Uşak Spor away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.50 + Uşak Spor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Uşak Spor attack 0.33 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more
65%
level
19%
Uşak Spor scores more
16%

Esenler Erokspor at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esenler Erokspor vs Uşak Spor

Esenler Erokspor beat Uşak Spor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 24, 2019.

The match was played at Esenler Stadyumu in İstanbul.