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Esenler Erokspor vs Ümraniyespor — 1. Lig 2018

Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
Preview
17:00
Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor
1/24/20271. Lig1. Lig · Round 22Esenler Stadium
48%
Esenler Erokspor
model favours
48%25%27%

Ümraniyespor win just 26% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Esenler Erokspor48%
×Draw25%
Ümraniyespor27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esenler Erokspor
1.59
Ümraniyespor
1.12

Esenler Erokspor creates 42% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 125 away

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.77
Ümraniyespor
1.16

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.08
Ümraniyespor
1.42

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par
Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Ümraniyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw
73%
Esenler Erokspor or Ümraniyespor
75%
Draw or Ümraniyespor
52%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
25%
Ümraniyespor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
80%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
47%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
21%
Ümraniyespor 1+ goals
67%
Ümraniyespor 2+ goals
31%
Ümraniyespor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
64%
Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.42 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.77 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ümraniyespor attack 1.16 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more
48%
level
25%
Ümraniyespor scores more
27%

Esenler Erokspor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Esenler Erokspor play Possession-dominant, Ümraniyespor Defensively solid
  • Esenler Erokspor sit 3, Ümraniyespor 16 in the table
  • Esenler Erokspor fall short of their xG (1.6 vs 2.0 expected)
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Esenler Erokspor
Possession-dominant
Ümraniyespor
Defensively solid
56%Possession51%
81%Pass accuracy79%
13.3Shots11.9
2.04xGBiggest gap1.54
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Esenler EroksporÜmraniyespor

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Esenler Erokspor
1
Draws
1
Ümraniyespor
Avg goals: 1.5BTTS: 25%
1–02–01–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Erokspor
LDLWW
Ümraniyespor
LWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esenler Erokspor face Ümraniyespor (1. Lig)

1. Lig returns with Esenler Erokspor hosting Ümraniyespor. Match starts January 24, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Esenler Erokspor host Ümraniyespor at Esenler Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.