Esenler Erokspor 4–1 Sakaryaspor: Result & Stats

Esenler Erokspor

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sakaryaspor

H. Catakovic 90'

O. Kayode 79', 53'

Amilton 28'

B. Coban 43'

12/6/2025

1. Lig · Round 16Esenler Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Esenler Erokspor53%

×Draw23%

Sakaryaspor24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esenler EroksporExpected goals in this matchSakaryaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.11

Esenler Erokspor

1.78

Sakaryaspor

1.11

Esenler Erokspor creates 60% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 71 away

1.77

creates per match

1.15

1.08

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.77

Sakaryaspor

1.15

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.08

Sakaryaspor

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Sakaryaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Sakaryaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw

76%

Esenler Erokspor or Sakaryaspor

77%

Draw or Sakaryaspor

47%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

29%

Sakaryaspor wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

83%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

53%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

26%

Sakaryaspor 1+ goals

67%

Sakaryaspor 2+ goals

30%

Sakaryaspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

69%

Sakaryaspor (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Sakaryaspor away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.77 + Sakaryaspor defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sakaryaspor attack 1.15 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more

53%

level

23%

Sakaryaspor scores more

24%

Esenler Erokspor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

O. Kayode

Esenler Erokspor · F

8.7

Match Events

17'

20'

28'

33'

43'

53'

63'

L. Zwolinski← W. Ben Yedder

74'

M. Faye← B. Lus

74'

R. Jack← T. Kacar

74'

E. Demir← M. Demir

79'

O. Kayode↳ G. Kanga

84'

A. Karaman← O. Kayode

84'

H. Catakovic← G. Kanga

88'

Eren Erdoğan

88'

A. Hidayetoglu← Amilton

88'

M. Cihan← E. Erdogan

88'

U. Akuazaoku← B. Altiparmak

90'

H. Catakovic↳ E. Alic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EsenlerSakaryaspor

Overview

56%Possession44%

10Total Shots4

1.79Expected Goals (xG)1.00

5Corners2

13Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots4

7On Target1

2Off Target2

1Blocked1

5Inside Box2

5Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

414Total Passes332

344Accurate Passes267

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1