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Esenler Erokspor vs Manisa F.K. — 1. Lig 2018

Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
Preview
17:00
Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
3/7/20271. Lig1. Lig · Round 29Esenler Stadium
48%
Esenler Erokspor
model favours
48%25%27%

Esenler Erokspor have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Esenler Erokspor48%
×Draw25%
Manisa F.K.27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esenler Erokspor
1.62
Manisa F.K.
1.14

Esenler Erokspor creates 42% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 89 away

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.77
Manisa F.K.
1.20

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.08
Manisa F.K.
1.47

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par
Manisa F.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Manisa F.K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw
73%
Esenler Erokspor or Manisa F.K.
75%
Draw or Manisa F.K.
52%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
25%
Manisa F.K. wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
80%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
48%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
22%
Manisa F.K. 1+ goals
68%
Manisa F.K. 2+ goals
32%
Manisa F.K. 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
64%
Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Manisa F.K. away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.47 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.77 + Manisa F.K. defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.62

Manisa F.K. attack 1.20 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more
48%
level
25%
Manisa F.K. scores more
27%

Esenler Erokspor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Manisa F.K. fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.5 expected)
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Esenler Erokspor
Attack-heavy
Manisa F.K.
Balanced
54%Possession52%
81%Pass accuracy78%
12.4Shots11.9
1.69xGBiggest gap1.47
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Esenler EroksporManisa F.K.

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

3
Esenler Erokspor
1
Draws
0
Manisa F.K.
Avg goals: 3.5BTTS: 75%
3–14–31–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Erokspor
LDLWW
F.K.
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Esenler Erokspor host Manisa F.K.

March 7, 2027: Esenler Erokspor take on Manisa F.K. in 1. Lig. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Esenler Erokspor host Manisa F.K. at Esenler Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.