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Esenler Erokspor vs Iğdır FK — 1. Lig 2018

Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
Preview
16:00
Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
8/30/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 4Esenler Stadium
45%
Esenler Erokspor
model favours
45%25%30%

Esenler Erokspor have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Esenler Erokspor45%
×Draw25%
Iğdır FK30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esenler Erokspor
1.56
Iğdır FK
1.21

Esenler Erokspor creates 29% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 38 away

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.77
Iğdır FK
1.34

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor
1.08
Iğdır FK
1.34

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par
Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Iğdır FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw
70%
Esenler Erokspor or Iğdır FK
75%
Draw or Iğdır FK
55%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
23%
Iğdır FK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
79%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
46%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
21%
Iğdır FK 1+ goals
70%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
34%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
61%
Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Iğdır FK away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.77 + Iğdır FK defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.56

Iğdır FK attack 1.34 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more
45%
level
25%
Iğdır FK scores more
30%

Esenler Erokspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Iğdır FK win just 24% against the top half (vs 53% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Esenler Erokspor sit 3, Iğdır FK 13 in the table
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Esenler Erokspor
Attack-heavy
Iğdır FK
Balanced
54%Possession55%
81%Pass accuracy81%
12.4ShotsBiggest gap9.5
1.69xG1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Esenler EroksporIğdır FK

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

3
Esenler Erokspor
0
Draws
1
Iğdır FK
Avg goals: 3.8BTTS: 75%
3–02–33–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Erokspor
LDLWW
FK
DLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esenler Erokspor face Iğdır FK (1. Lig)

1. Lig returns with Esenler Erokspor hosting Iğdır FK. Match starts August 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Esenler Erokspor host Iğdır FK at Esenler Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.