Esenler Erokspor 2–1 Ergene Velimeşespor

Esenler Erokspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ergene Velimeşespor

9/12/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundBayrampaşa Çetin Emeç Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Esenler Erokspor65%

×Draw19%

Ergene Velimeşespor16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esenler EroksporExpected goals in this matchErgene Velimeşespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.00

Esenler Erokspor

2.25

Ergene Velimeşespor

1.00

Esenler Erokspor creates 125% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

0.33

1.67

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.50

Ergene Velimeşespor

0.33

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.67

Ergene Velimeşespor

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Ergene Velimeşespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Ergene Velimeşespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw

84%

Esenler Erokspor or Ergene Velimeşespor

81%

Draw or Ergene Velimeşespor

35%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

42%

Ergene Velimeşespor wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

89%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

65%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

39%

Ergene Velimeşespor 1+ goals

63%

Ergene Velimeşespor 2+ goals

26%

Ergene Velimeşespor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

81%

Ergene Velimeşespor (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Ergene Velimeşespor away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.50 + Ergene Velimeşespor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Ergene Velimeşespor attack 0.33 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more

65%

level

19%

Ergene Velimeşespor scores more

16%

Esenler Erokspor at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff