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Escorpiones Belén vs Quepos Cambute — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belénadvanced
FT
5 – 2
Quepos Cambute
Quepos Cambute
11/12/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsPolideportivo de Bélen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Escorpiones Belén50%
×Draw21%
Quepos Cambute29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escorpiones Belén
2.08
Quepos Cambute
1.56

Escorpiones Belén creates 33% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 71 away

creates per match

Escorpiones Belén
2.37
Quepos Cambute
1.59

allows per match

Escorpiones Belén
1.52
Quepos Cambute
1.79

finishing

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par
Quepos Cambute+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escorpiones Belén ↓

Quepos Cambute →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Escorpiones Belén or draw
71%
Escorpiones Belén or Quepos Cambute
79%
Draw or Quepos Cambute
50%

Winning margin

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
29%
Quepos Cambute wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
87%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
61%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
34%
Quepos Cambute 1+ goals
79%
Quepos Cambute 2+ goals
46%
Quepos Cambute 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
63%
Quepos Cambute (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escorpiones Belén at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.52 · 86 matches

Quepos Cambute away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.79 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escorpiones Belén attack 2.37 + Quepos Cambute defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.08

Quepos Cambute attack 1.59 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Escorpiones Belén scores more
50%
level
21%
Quepos Cambute scores more
29%

Escorpiones Belén at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Escorpiones Belén vs Quepos Cambute

Escorpiones Belén beat Quepos Cambute 5-2 in Liga de Ascenso on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Polideportivo de Bélen in San Antonio de Belén.