Escorpiones Belén 1–2 Puntarenas FC: Result & Stats

Escorpiones Belén

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Puntarenas FC

4/10/2022

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 18Estadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Escorpiones Belén45%

×Draw23%

Puntarenas FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Escorpiones BelénExpected goals in this matchPuntarenas FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.43

Escorpiones Belén

1.73

Puntarenas FC

1.43

Escorpiones Belén creates 21% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 66 away

2.37

creates per match

1.33

1.52

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Escorpiones Belén

2.37

Puntarenas FC

1.33

allows per match

Escorpiones Belén

1.52

Puntarenas FC

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par

Puntarenas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escorpiones Belén ↓

Puntarenas FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Escorpiones Belén or draw

68%

Escorpiones Belén or Puntarenas FC

77%

Draw or Puntarenas FC

55%

Winning margin

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+

24%

Puntarenas FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals

82%

Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals

52%

Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals

25%

Puntarenas FC 1+ goals

76%

Puntarenas FC 2+ goals

42%

Puntarenas FC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)

58%

Puntarenas FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escorpiones Belén at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.52 · 86 matches

Puntarenas FC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escorpiones Belén attack 2.37 + Puntarenas FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.73

Puntarenas FC attack 1.33 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Escorpiones Belén scores more

45%

level

23%

Puntarenas FC scores more

32%

Escorpiones Belén at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff