Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Escorpiones Belén vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Escorpiones Belén
Escorpiones Belén
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
2/7/2026Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Escorpiones Belén56%
×Draw22%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Escorpiones Belén
1.97
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.16

Escorpiones Belén creates 70% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 14 away

creates per match

Escorpiones Belén
2.37
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
0.79

allows per match

Escorpiones Belén
1.52
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
1.57

finishing

Escorpiones Belén+0.00on par
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Escorpiones Belén ↓

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Escorpiones Belén or draw
78%
Escorpiones Belén or Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
78%
Draw or Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC
44%

Winning margin

Escorpiones Belén wins by 2+
33%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Escorpiones Belén 1+ goals
86%
Escorpiones Belén 2+ goals
58%
Escorpiones Belén 3+ goals
31%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 1+ goals
69%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 2+ goals
32%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Escorpiones Belén (draw refunded)
72%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Escorpiones Belén at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.52 · 86 matches

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Escorpiones Belén attack 2.37 + Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.97

Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC attack 0.79 + Escorpiones Belén defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Escorpiones Belén scores more
56%
level
22%
Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC scores more
22%

Escorpiones Belén at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Escorpiones Belén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Escorpiones Belén 4–0 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC

Escorpiones Belén beat Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 4-0 in Liga de Ascenso on February 7, 2026.